Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Black swan

A friend of Ernest’s has a rare disease.

...

Ernest: One in a million chance. And Wolfgang gets it.

Frank: Black swan.

Ernest: Huh?

Frank: Something that just comes out of the blue. A random occurrence. Swans were always white until they found black ones in Australia.

Ernest: Never expected. No warning.

Frank: Exactly. Chaos theory, Fractal theory. Now Taleb’s black swan theory. Riemke describes the path of her life as totally haphazard. The good things and the bad things are unpredicted. The impact of the improbable and unforeseen.

...

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